Russian President Vladimir Putin is not ready to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, former prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov said.

Kasyanov, who served as prime minister from 2000 to 2004, made the remarks in an interview in Paris.

He said Putin had made a mistake by invading Ukraine in 2022. However, Kasyanov believes the Russian leader cannot admit it.

“He believed the reports from his security services that Ukraine was weak,” Kasyanov said.

The former prime minister said he was not convinced the war would end next year.

He said high oil prices linked to the US-Iran conflict could help Russia sustain its war effort. He also pointed to disagreements between the United States and Europe over policy towards Moscow.

Warning Over Winter Strikes

Kasyanov said Putin believes Russia can continue the war without making major concessions.

He also warned that Ukraine could face a difficult winter as Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure intensify.

Kasyanov urged Western countries to maintain a united position and provide Ukraine with more Patriot missile interceptors.

He said stronger Western pressure could influence the Kremlin’s calculations.

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Putin has repeatedly said that millions of Russians support the war. His ruling party also secured a large majority in recent elections, which critics described as tightly controlled.

Fear Among Russia’s Elite

Kasyanov left Russia in 2022 and now lives in exile in Riga.

Moscow designated him a “foreign agent” in 2023. He remains in contact with some members of Russia’s political elite, he said.

According to Kasyanov, fear has spread among the ruling class.

He said many members of the elite want the war to end. However, they differ over how it should end.

“Some want the war to end in victory, some want it to end in Putin’s defeat, and others simply want it to stop,” he said.

No Sign of a Public Revolt

Kasyanov said he saw little evidence that ordinary Russians were preparing to revolt.

He pointed to rising casualties and food prices but said Russians had become accustomed to high inflation.

However, he warned that another large-scale military mobilisation could trigger street protests.

He also described Russian society as increasingly tense and isolated.

“There is a sense of fatalism, hostility toward one another, and serious tension in society,” he said.

Kasyanov Urges West Not to Fear Putin

Kasyanov also criticised what he described as Western fears over Putin’s threats.

Putin recently warned that Russia could use “all types of weapons” if its Kaliningrad exclave came under attack.

Kasyanov said Western governments should not allow such statements to dictate their policy.

He argued that Putin wants foreign governments to view him as unpredictable. Kasyanov instead described the Russian president as a calculating political leader.

Kasyanov became one of the Kremlin’s most vocal critics after Putin dismissed him as prime minister. He had previously predicted in 2022 that the war could last about two years.