Oil prices climbed more than 2% on Monday after the United States launched a strike on Iran’s Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, followed by reported Iranian attacks on US bases in Jordan, raising fresh concerns over the security of a critical global energy route.

Brent crude futures rose $2.51, or 2.85%, to $90.61 a barrel by 0241 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $2.13, or 2.55%, to reach $85.53.

The latest increase came as the Middle East conflict entered its sixth month, with uncertainty growing over efforts to end the fighting and restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

US-Iran strikes fuel market concerns

US forces struck two launchers on Iran’s Larak Island in the Hormuz Strait on Sunday, according to reports. The attack was described as the first known US strike against Iran since late July.

Iran subsequently launched attacks on two US air bases in Jordan, Iranian media reported on Monday, citing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Market analysts warned that the latest developments could mark another phase of escalation.

“Looks like we are in another escalation phase,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said, adding that it was impossible to determine whether the escalation would last days or weeks.

Hormuz remains vital to global oil supplies

The Strait of Hormuz remains central to concerns over the global oil market because of its importance to international energy shipments. Before the war began in late February, around one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passed through the waterway.

Negotiations aimed at ending the conflict remain stalled, while mediators continue efforts to reopen the strategic strait. Any prolonged disruption could place additional pressure on global energy markets and push crude prices higher.

Technical indicators also pointed to the possibility of further gains. Sycamore said a move in WTI above the $85.80-$85.90 resistance range could open the way towards last week’s high of $87.69, followed by July’s peak of $93.50.

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Monthly losses remain possible

Despite the latest rise, Brent and WTI remained on track for modest monthly declines in August after both benchmarks fell more than 4% last week. That marked their first weekly decline in three weeks.

Analysts at ANZ said rising oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz had helped limit immediate fears of a major supply disruption, although uncertainty surrounding an agreement to fully reopen the waterway remained.

Shipping activity, however, showed signs of growing caution. Data indicated that the number of visible commodity vessels travelling through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend fell to around five per day as shipping companies became increasingly wary of potential attacks.

Tanker strike raises shipping risks

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said on Sunday that a tanker had been struck by a projectile while travelling inbound through the strait on Saturday, adding to concerns over the safety of commercial shipping.

The latest developments could further complicate efforts to stabilise energy markets, particularly if attacks on vessels or restrictions on the waterway continue.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington was likely to impose new secondary sanctions on Iran every week as part of efforts to cut Tehran off from the dollar-based financial system.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said oil from a recently announced deal with Venezuela would be used to replenish the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which has fallen close to its lowest level in 44 years.

For global energy markets, the key risk remains the Strait of Hormuz. A sustained disruption to the route could tighten supplies, increase shipping costs and add further upward pressure on crude prices.