Wheat prices have started rising only months after Punjab recorded a bumper wheat harvest, raising fresh concerns about flour costs and food security across Pakistan.

Farmers, flour millers and agricultural organisations have warned that policy failures, market uncertainty and supply disruptions could drive wheat and flour prices even higher unless federal and provincial authorities act quickly.

The warnings come despite the Punjab government’s announcement that the province harvested a record 22 million tonnes of wheat this season.

Markazi Kisan League (MKL) Chairman Chaudhry Zulfiqar Ali Olakh said Pakistan risks another wheat crisis because of weak planning rather than poor production.

“Pakistan spent more than $1 billion importing around 3.5 million tonnes of wheat last year, yet the country still faces an estimated shortfall of nearly the same volume,” he said. He warned that Pakistan may need to import another two million tonnes if authorities fail to stabilise the market.

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Olakh added that wheat prices could exceed Rs5,000 per maund if the government delays corrective measures, placing additional pressure on household food budgets.

The federal government maintains that Pakistan has enough wheat supplies and estimates this year’s production at about 1.36 million metric tonnes higher than last year’s output. However, it has directed provincial authorities to monitor markets closely and crack down on hoarding and artificial price manipulation.

Meanwhile, flour millers continue to report disruptions in wheat procurement and transportation. The suspension of wheat supply permits for flour mills in Islamabad and Rawalpindi has raised fears of an artificial flour shortage in the twin cities.

Industry representatives warned that nearly 45 flour mills could soon exhaust their wheat stocks if authorities do not restore supplies. Market reports also indicate that the price of roti has already increased from Rs17 to Rs25 in some areas following the disruption.

To ease market pressure, the Punjab government has started releasing wheat from official stocks at a fixed price of Rs3,800 per 40 kilograms while transferring one million metric tonnes of wheat from PASSCO to provincial reserves.

Flour millers welcomed the decision but said Pakistan may still require additional imports if supplies tighten later this year.

Agriculture experts say uncertainty over government procurement, private stockholding and transportation policies has disrupted the wheat supply chain despite the recent harvest.

The MKL criticised the Punjab government’s earlier decision to limit large-scale wheat procurement from farmers, arguing that the policy failed to reduce flour prices for consumers. The organisation also accused traders and hoarders of exploiting policy gaps by creating artificial shortages and called for a nationwide audit of wheat stocks, the restoration of wheat permits, unrestricted inter-provincial wheat movement and stricter enforcement against market manipulation.

Muhammad Riaz, a wheat grower from Sheikhupura, said many farmers sold their wheat at low prices because they lacked storage facilities and needed cash to repay loans and prepare for the next planting season.

“We sold our wheat because we had no choice. Now the same wheat is becoming more expensive, while farmers have already absorbed the losses,” he said.

Analysts say Pakistan must strengthen coordination between federal and provincial governments, improve stock management and intervene in the market before prices surge further. They warn that timely action will prove critical because wheat remains the country’s primary food crop and a key source of daily nutrition for more than 240 million people.