A new study led by Aga Khan University (AKU) has revealed a major dengue burden in Pakistan.

The research was conducted with national and international partners. It was published in PLOS ONE.

The study provides national estimates of dengue incidence from 2012 to 2022. Researchers found that the true burden may be much higher than previously recognised.

The research used laboratory data and advanced statistical modelling. It also considered healthcare-seeking behaviour and diagnostic testing practices.

Dengue Cases Rise Sharply in Pakistan

The study estimates that dengue cases increased sharply during the research period.

Pakistan recorded an estimated 100,000 cases in 2012. That figure rose to around 3.28 million cases in 2022.

The findings point to a rapidly growing public health challenge.

Professor Erum Khan, Chair of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine at AKU, highlighted the study’s approach.

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“The unique feature of this study is its innovative use of routinely collected clinical laboratory data from three nationwide diagnostic laboratory networks,” she said.

Researchers used this information to estimate dengue incidence across Pakistan.

Sindh Emerges as Major Dengue Hotspot

The study also found major geographic differences in dengue transmission.

Sindh recorded the highest estimated burden among Pakistan’s provinces. The province had an estimated incidence of 45.63 cases per 1,000 people.

Researchers estimated around 2.63 million dengue cases in Sindh. Adults aged 15 to 49 years accounted for a large share of the reported burden.

Karachi East recorded the highest estimated incidence at district level.

The findings highlight the need for targeted prevention efforts in high-risk areas.

Dengue May No Longer Be Only Seasonal

Dr Zarmeen Nasim, the study’s lead author, said dengue transmission is becoming a year-round concern.

Nasim is an Assistant Professor and researcher at the AKU Health Data Science Centre.

“Dengue is no longer just a seasonal threat,” she said.

Cases still increase during the post-monsoon months. However, the study found signs of sustained transmission throughout the year.

Researchers also observed progressively larger outbreaks over time.

These findings suggest that Pakistan may need to rethink its approach to dengue surveillance and prevention.

Study Calls for Stronger Prevention Measures

The researchers called for stronger disease surveillance across the country.

They also recommended targeted action in high-risk districts. Environmental control measures should form part of a wider prevention strategy.

The study highlights several possible tools. These include vector control, vaccines and Wolbachia mosquitoes.

Researchers also stressed the importance of public awareness.

Training healthcare professionals in dengue management was another key recommendation.

The findings underline the need for sustainable and coordinated dengue prevention strategies.

As dengue transmission continues to affect Pakistan, the study provides new evidence about the scale of the challenge.