Sindh Water shortages caused by delays in ongoing works at Tarbela Dam are expected to inflict heavy economic losses on farmers during the kharif season, with paddy growers among the worst affected as disrupted water releases delay cultivation and fuel fresh interprovincial tensions.

Farmers in the right bank command area of Sukkur Barrage have struggled to prepare paddy nurseries because of insufficient irrigation supplies. Paddy seedlings must normally be transplanted within 35 to 40 days after nursery preparation. Delays beyond that period expose the crop to pests and reduce overall productivity.

Ishaq Mughairi, a paddy grower from Shahdadkot district, said his area, which receives irrigation through Sukkur Barrage’s North Western Canal, faces severe water shortages.

“We do not even have enough water for drinking. Last year, I harvested only 40 maunds of paddy from my 50 to 60 acres because of water shortages, and this year the situation remains unchanged,” he said.

Tarbela Project: Inquiry Blames Wapda, Contractor and Consultant for Cofferdam Collapse

The ongoing development work on Tarbela Dam’s tunnels has limited the Indus River System Authority’s (Irsa) ability to regulate water releases to the provinces. Tarbela is Sindh’s main source of irrigation water during the early kharif season, when demand for supplies is at its highest.

Unlike previous years, Tarbela held considerably more water in April 2026. The reservoir stood at 1,449.82 feet with inflows of 43,000 cusecs, compared with 1,410.37 feet and inflows of 18,100 cusecs during the same period in 2025. Despite improved storage, delays in completing critical infrastructure restricted water releases.

Sindh repeatedly requested additional irrigation supplies, arguing that available storage should have supported summer crops. Irsa initially reduced releases under its policy of equalising shortages among provinces, a decision Sindh challenged, saying surplus flows generated by rainfall could not be counted against its allocation under the 1991 Water Accord.

In a letter issued on July 2, Irsa accused Wapda of repeatedly ignoring its regulatory directives regarding the operation of Tarbela’s Tunnel-4 Low-Level Outlet (T4-LLO). The authority said Wapda released only 152,400 cusecs against the required 170,000 cusecs, creating a shortfall of 17,400 cusecs.

Irsa also reported that Sindh received only 168,000 cusecs against its demand of 190,000 cusecs, while Punjab received 125,200 cusecs instead of the requested 147,700 cusecs.

The regulator warned that the continued closure of the T4-LLO and the unavailability of Tarbela generating units forced greater reliance on Mangla Dam, reducing its storage by 0.5 million acre-feet during a critical filling period.

Irsa said it had already warned Wapda in October 2025 about delays in completing Tunnel-5 and the T4-LLO. Although it granted a no-objection certificate in October 2022 allowing construction until June 29, 2025, the projects remain unfinished and Wapda has yet to provide a firm revised completion schedule.

The regulator estimated that around 75,000 cusecs of water remained unavailable during May 2026 because of the incomplete works, significantly affecting Sindh at the peak of the kharif season.

Wapda had requested Irsa to maintain Tarbela’s storage below 1,480 feet during construction, while the regulator sought storage of 1,520 feet by June to meet irrigation requirements. Wapda did not respond to requests for comment.

The disruption intensified shortages across Sindh’s barrages, with Kotri Barrage recording the steepest decline in water flows, reaching 65 per cent below normal levels until June 18.

Irsa later increased releases after lawmakers from Sindh raised the issue in parliament during the federal budget session. However, Sukkur Barrage could not fully utilise the additional water because of low pond levels, forcing excess flows downstream towards Kotri.

The water shortage has also heightened tensions between Sindh and Balochistan. Balochistan has accused Sindh of withholding its allocated share despite Irsa releasing sufficient volumes. According to Balochistan’s claims, it received only 0.365 million acre-feet of water by July 3 against an allocation of 0.675 million acre-feet, leaving a shortfall of 0.310 million acre-feet.